What an outcome card contains
Each comparable condition is evaluated across 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour and 24-hour horizons. A card reports the median return, the share of observations that finished positive, the middle 50% range, the number of completed samples and—in supported views—the difference from a wider market benchmark.
Reading the fields
- Median
- The middle completed observation. Half of the observations are above it and half below it.
- Positive share
- The percentage of completed observations whose return ended above zero.
- Middle 50%
- The range between the 25th and 75th percentiles. It shows common dispersion without the most extreme quarter on either side.
- Sample size
- The number of observations that had enough future data to complete that horizon.
- Versus core
- An optional broad-market comparison, not a second trading signal.
Why completed observations matter
An event cannot be counted at a 24-hour horizon until 24 hours of later market data exists. PerpMetric therefore separates queued, incomplete and completed outcomes. This prevents partial future windows from being treated as final research evidence.
Research rule: consider sample size, coverage and dispersion together. A positive median with a wide range can describe substantial uncertainty.
Open the research workspace